Population Change in Western North Carolina Post Hurricane Helene

Past disasters offer insight into Helene's potential impact on population of region

I have received many questions about the implications for population and population change for counties and municipalities that have been heavily impacted by Hurricane Helene. Unlike my prior posts focused on the population characteristics before the storm struck, this post will attempt to address questions of future population impacts. 

Most of the studies about the effect of disasters on population change are associated with hurricanes in coastal areas, even though disasters in Appalachia and other mountain areas are not rare. I recognize disasters in coastal, mostly urban areas may not be perfect comparisons to the region most impacted by Helene. However similar patterns are found in case studies of wildfire events and other non-coastal disasters. In addition, there will be differences for the path to recovery depending on a county’s or municipality’s location, damage severity, population size, pre-Helene population trends, and socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. 

Acknowledging these limitations, here is what I believe to be the likely effects on population change in these areas based upon knowledge about major disasters in other areas:

Regarding Immediate Impacts

Mortality impacts

• The immediate impact is in lives lost.  We don’t yet have a final accounting of the deaths directly attributed to the storm, but as of October 29, 99 fatalities have been confirmed in North Carolina. Hurricane Helene is already the third deadliest hurricane to hit the United States this century.
• In addition to these direct impacts, there will be additional deaths indirectly attributed to Hurricane Helene. Damaged infrastructure will limit access to clean water, adequate sewage treatment, electrical power, and transportation. Air quality will also be compromised. In addition, people have experienced traumatic stress and will continue to experience stress over the course of the recovery. 
• The most vulnerable – older populations, the disabled, people with chronic conditions, and people with limited resources are at most risk of dying during the aftermath of a major storm like Helene.

Evacuations and out-migration

• The disaster has forced many to leave their homes to live in temporary shelters; hotels, motels, and other vacation accommodations; or with friends or family. Some may have already left their communities, and others will move out over the next several months. 
• Most of those who move from their pre-disaster community will move to places where they have family and friends, typically places nearby. 
• Most of those who leave the region entirely are most likely moving to the Charlotte area, the Triad, the Triangle, or other nearby metropolitan areas in surrounding states.
• There will be some who move longer distances, typically to places they have personal connections. This will be especially true for evacuees of Buncombe, Henderson, and other counties that have a larger share of recent migrants to North Carolina. See my “Updated Insight on the Population in Hurricane Helene’s Path” for more on counties with native born vs recent migrants.

Most people will return to where they lived prior to the disaster

• The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics found that 68% of Katrina evacuees returned to their original county within five months and almost three-quarters did so within one year. 
• Recent national surveys show that an estimated 67% of people who were forced to move after a disaster returned to their home within six months. 
• An estimated 94% of the 7,800 people displaced by wildfires in Sonoma County, California in 2017 returned, with 87% remaining in their original neighborhood. 
• Two-thirds of those displaced by Hurricane Andrew in Dade County, Florida had returned to their original residence location by the next year.¹ 

Those less likely to return may not move far

• Those who do not return to their original community will most likely be living somewhere else within Western North Carolina.
• Evacuees who do not return to the region will more likely be of working age and have fewer financial resources than those who do return.
• Older evacuees are more likely to return than younger ones.

The Potential Implications for Population Change

• For most most counties and municipalities, the impacts to their population size will be negligible. This will depend on the severity of the damage and the pace of recovery. 
  • Of the 117 counties and parishes in the Katrina and Rita Hurricane disaster areas, there were only eight with populations less than 99% of their July 1, 2005, pre-hurricane population by January 1, 2006.
  • Net out-migration accelerated in the New Orleans MSA after Katrina and the Chico MSA after wildfires, but eventually returned to pre-disaster net in-migration trends 12 and 24 months after the initial events.²
• There will be some municipalities and counties with significant loss. 
  • Although most Rita and Katrina affected counties and parishes experienced only minor population losses (and many gained), five had populations that were below 90% of their pre-hurricane populations by January 2006, with the most significant losses occurring in Orleans Parish (-279,000 – down to 36% of their pre-hurricane population) and St. Bernard Parish (-61,000 – down to 5% of their pre-hurricane population). Virtually all of the housing units in these two parishes were flooded during and after Katrina.
• For some counties, Helene’s impact is likely to stunt recent experiences of population increase, while in others the storm damage will accelerate population declines due to out-migration of younger populations and fewer people moving in. The importance of net migration for population growth can be seen in the projections we prepared last year, showing that all counties are projected to experience natural decrease between 2020 and 2030, with net migration making up the difference between population loss and population growth.

• Fast growing counties in the area may experience slower population growth in the next few years until infrastructure and housing can be rebuilt and expanded.
• Population trends in the area are likely to return to pre-hurricane trends.
  • Dade County’s population declined by over 30,000 over the year following Andrew, but it made up the loss in the following year.³
• Counties and municipalities in Western North Carolina (and adjacent states) that experienced only minor damage will likely receive an influx of evacuees and construction workers from other areas to assist in the recovery. The level of population increase will depend on the amount of housing available. In addition to construction workers, entrepreneurs may arrive to redevelop damaged neighborhoods and communities.
  • Most evacuees of Hurricane Andrew in Dade County, Florida, moved within Dade County or to adjacent Broward County. North Dade County’s population grew, absorbing population from more heavily impacted Southern Dade County.⁴  
• The loss of interstate highway connections will damper economic activity, depressing labor markets and leading to additional out-migration of working age populations. This will be further exacerbated by the damage to the Blue Ridge Parkway and other major tourist facilities.

Regarding Funding Formula Impacts

Many federal and state funds are distributed to local communities based on funding formulas that incorporate annual population estimates as a factor. For this reason county and local governments may be concerned about the fiscal implications of potential population loss as a result of the storm. However, there is some relief given the lag time necessary to prepare population estimates. 

Thus, 

• Funding formulas using the certified population estimates will not be affected by the impacts of Hurricane Helene until 2026, when we estimate the July 1, 2025, populations of municipalities and counties. The estimates produced next year will reference pre-Helene conditions (July 1, 2024).
• Similarly, the United States Census Bureau’s annual population estimates used in federal funding formulas will not be impacted until 2026, when they estimate the July 1, 2025, populations of municipalities (incorporated places in census jargon) and counties.

Funding formulas using the state's certified population estimates will not be affected by the impacts of Hurricane Helene until 2026

Resources for Residents Impacted by the Storm

You can find information and resources for North Carolina residents and visitors who were impacted by Hurricane Helene here, including the best ways to donate your resources and time to aid in the recovery and the initial damage assessment . Additional information will be posted as it becomes available.

Notes

1. Stanley K. Smith and Christopher McCarty, “Demographic Effects of Natural Disasters: A Case Study of Hurricane Andrew,” Demography, Vol. 33, No. 2 (May, 1996).
2. “Migration to Environmentally Risky Areas: A Consequence of the Pandemic” in FreddieMac Economic & Housing Research Note, November 2022.
3. Stanley K. Smith and Christopher McCarty, “Demographic Effects of Natural Disasters: A Case Study of Hurricane Andrew,” Demography, Vol. 33, No. 2 (May, 1996).
4. Stanley K. Smith and Christopher McCarty, “Demographic Effects of Natural Disasters: A Case Study of Hurricane Andrew,” Demography, Vol. 33, No. 2 (May, 1996).