Village of Chimney Rock Hurricane Helene damage

Updated Insight - The Population in Hurricane Helene’s Path
Western North Carolina Home to Rural Communities, High Percentage of Older Residents

Author: Michael Cline, North Carolina State Demographer

In a previous post, I summarized the population characteristics of the 25-counties first included in the federal disaster declaration on September 28, 2024. Since that time, 14 counties have been added. 

A little less than half (42% or 4.6 million people) of North Carolina’s population lives within this 39-county region. A subset of these counties – currently 26 counties – are eligible for all categories of FEMA public assistance according to the severity of the damage within those counties. There are 1.8 million North Carolinians living within this 26-county region – about 16% of the state’s population total. 

In this post, I provide an overview of some key demographic characteristics for this region.

Key characteristics of the 26 counties eligible for all categories of public assistance:

Population growth was steadily increasing in the region prior to Helene, though some parts were not

  • 50,000 people have been added to the population of this 26-county region since 2020. A 2.9% increase in the regional total, this growth has been slower than the state’s (at 3.9%). 1
  • Since 2020, four counties in the region grew more rapidly than the state’s 3.9% rate, including Lincoln (9.2%), Clay (5.8%), Alleghany (5.8%), and Gaston (5.6%) counties.
  • Five counties have experienced small population declines since 2020, including Swain (-2.1%), Avery (-1.7%), Mitchell (-1.2%), Alexander (-0.6%), and McDowell (-0.2%) counties.

Summary of 26 Counties Eligible for FEMA Public Assistance A-G Grants

Source: North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management, Vintage 2023 Population Estimates and United States Census Bureau, 2020 Census (for CDP populations).
Item26 County Area%Statewide%
Municipal Population 643,53436%6,314,385 58%
Unincorporated Population         1,130,35764%4,531,88942%
Population in Census Designated Places (CDP), 2020136,6418%442,9534%
Total Population, April 1, 20201,723,98217%10,439,539100%
Total Population, July 1, 20231,773,89116%10,846,274100%
Population Change Since April 1, 202049,9092.9%406,7353.9%
Population Change, 2022 - 202320,6900.5%144,2601.3%

 

Most of the population lives in rural unincorporated areas

  • About 1.1 million people live in unincorporated areas.  This is 64% of the total population.2 As a comparison, only 42% of the state’s population lives in unincorporated areas. Another 644,000 people live in one of the 114 incorporated municipalities located in the region.
  • There are more people living in unincorporated Buncombe County (156,000 people) – the largest county in the region – than living in the City of Asheville (at 97,000 people). These unincorporated areas may include unincorporated villages, many considered Census Designated Places (CDPs), such as the Swannanoa CDP in Buncombe County, where 5,021 people were counted in the 2020 Census.3 
  • Of the 26 counties, only four – Buncombe, Gaston, Henderson, and Lincoln – have population densities greater than 250 people per square mile. 

Most municipalities are small

  • Sixty-three of the 114 municipalities wholly or partially located within these 26 counties had populations of less than 2,000 people in 2023. Some of these smallest municipalities experienced substantial impacts during the storm, including Chimney Rock Village (150 people), Hot Springs (530 people), and Marshall (790 people).4
  • There are only 14 municipalities with populations greater than 10,000 people, including the three largest cities of Asheville (97,000), Gastonia (84,000), and Hickory (45,000).  Less than one quarter of the region’s population lives in these 14 largest municipalities. 

Senior populations account for a larger share of the overall population 

  • An estimated 22% of the population, or 401,000 people, is at least 65 years old (compared to 18% statewide).5 
  • In 14% of the households in the area, a single older adult (65+) is living alone.6
  • There are 38 senior adults (65+) for every 100 working age adult (ages 18 to 64). This compares to 30 statewide and 28 for the rest of the state.
  • Although part of the difference can be attributed to the fact that the area is a prime destination for retirees from other parts of the state and country, aging in place is also occurring and may be a significant contributor to population aging, particularly for smaller counties of the region.

The working age population skews older 

  • About 44% of the typical working age population (ages 18 to 64) is between the ages of 44 and 65, a higher proportion than the rest of the state (at 41%).7
  • For every 100 people in the usual working ages of 18 to 64, there are 69 people in the dependent ages (either younger or older). This compares to 63 for the rest of the state.

A significant share of the population has one or more disabilities

  • Owing to an aging population, 16% of the population reported one or more disabilities in the American Community Survey – compared to 13% statewide.8

Children account for a smaller share of the overall population 

  • An estimated 328,000 children younger than 18 live in the region, or about 18% of the population (compared to 21% of the state’s population).9
  • Family households with children under 18 account for 26% of all households in the area.10 About 9% are single-parent households.

The population is rooted in North Carolina

  • 62% of the region’s population was born in North Carolina, compared to 55% of the state’s population. But there are differences within the region – many retirement destination counties in the southern part of the region have attracted migrants from Florida and other parts of the country and Asheville has been a destination for working age populations, resulting in a smaller share of the population born in North Carolina.11 
  • Over 70% of the populations of Alexander, Burke, Caldwell, Cleveland, McDowell, and Wilkes counties were born in North Carolina.
  • In only six counties, half or less of the population was born in North Carolina. These counties include Buncombe (50%), Transylvania (49%), Henderson (47%), Macon (45%), Polk (39%), and Clay (33%) counties. 

About the Sources

This summary includes estimates from three major sources: NC OSBM’s vintage 2023 county and municipal population estimates for municipal, unincorporated, and county population totals (for July 1, 2023 and population change); NC OSBM’s vintage 2023 county population projections for age characteristics (for July 1, 2024); and the US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2018-2022 5-Year estimates household characteristics. These data, and more, can be found on LINC – the first stop for information about North Carolina.

You can find information and resources for North Carolina residents and visitors who were impacted by Hurricane Helene, including the best ways to donate your resources and time to aid in the recovery. Additional information will be posted as it becomes available.

Footnotes

  1. NC OSBM, July 1, 2023 population estimates (Vintage 2023).
  2. NC OSBM, July 1, 2023 population estimates (Vintage 2023).
  3. US Census Bureau, April 1, 2020 Census.
  4. NC OSBM, July 1, 2023 population estimates (Vintage 2023).
  5. NC OSBM, July 1, 2024 population projections (Vintage 2023).
  6. US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2018-2022 5-year estimate.
  7. US OSBM, July 1, 2024 population projections (Vintage 2023).
  8. US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2018-2022 5-year estimate.
  9. US OSBM, July 1, 2024 population projections (Vintage 2023).
  10. US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2018-2022 5-year estimate. 
  11. US OSBM, July 1, 2024 population projections (Vintage 2023).