Author: Michael Cline, North Carolina State Demographer
I was set to prepare a series of blog posts regarding trends we see in our recently published county and municipal population estimates. But given the disaster in western North Carolina and the concern everyone feels about people in those communities, I thought it best to provide a quick summary of the population living in the area most impacted by Hurricane Helene.
This summary includes information about the permanent resident population living in the impacted counties. It does not include people who may have been living there for only a part of the year or may have been visiting when the storm hit.
These figures confirm what most people already know about western North Carolina – it is an area of small towns and rural population. There are 1.8 million people living in the 25 counties officially declared a disaster by the federal government on September 28, 2024. The majority, or 64% of the population (1.1 million people), lived in unincorporated areas. Compare this to 42% statewide. There are more people living in unincorporated Buncombe County (156,000 people) – where Asheville is located – than living in the city of Asheville (97,000 people), the area’s largest city!
These unincorporated areas may include unincorporated villages, many considered Census Designated Places (CDPs). A good example of such an area is Swannanoa CDP in Buncombe County, where 5,021 people were counted in the 2020 Census. The 2023 estimated population for this CDP is part of the 156,000 people estimated living in unincorporated Buncombe County since we only estimate the populations of incorporated municipalities (cities, towns, and villages).
Summary of Impacted Area
| Item | Impacted Area | % | Statewide | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Municipal Population | 642,034 | 36% | 6,314,385 | 58% |
| Unincorporated Population | 1,118,030 | 64% | 4,531,889 | 42% |
| Population in Census Designated Places (CDP), 2020 | 135,612 | 8% | 442,953 | 4% |
| Total Population, April 1, 2020 | 1,709,865 | 16% | 10,439,539 | 100% |
| Total Population, July 1, 2023 | 1,760,064 | 16% | 10,846,274 | 100% |
| Population Change Since April 1, 2020 | 50,199 | 2.9% | 406,735 | 3.9% |
| Population Change, 2022 - 2023 | 20,733 | 1.2% | 144,260 | 1.3% |
There are 113 municipalities wholly are partially located within the 25 county federally designated disaster area. About 642,000 people lived in these municipalities as of July 1, 2023. This is 36% of the region’s population.
There are 14 cities of 10,000 or more people with the largest being Asheville (97,000), Gastonia (84,000), and Hickory (45,000). Less than one quarter of the region’s population lives in these 14 largest municipalities.
In addition, 61 municipalities with populations of less than 2,000 people accounted for 50,000 of the area’s population. Although we do not know the full impact of the storm for many communities in the region, some municipalities noted in recent news stories include Chimney Rock Village (150 people), Hot Springs (530 people), and Marshall (790 people).
The estimated populations of these impacted counties and municipalities can be accessed on our open data platform.
Western North Carolina is a destination for retirees and thus the population in the region skews a little older than other areas of the state. According to our population projections prepared last year, about 22% of the population, or 398,000 people, is 65 years old or older (compared to 18% statewide). At the other end of the age spectrum, there are an estimated 324,000 children younger than 18, or about 18% of the population (compared to 21% of the state’s population).
Beyond age, there are other factors important in understanding the needs of this region. The Office of State Budget and Management and other state agencies are currently working diligently to pull together the information needed to address the needs and set the state on a path to recovery.
About the Population Estimates
In this post, except where noted, the population estimates summarized here were derived from the official county and standard municipal population estimates published on September 16, 2024. The standard estimates include revisions to previous annual population estimates and thus should be used for most planning purposes. We also publish the certified population estimates that are used as a basis for the distribution of some state tax dollars to local municipalities and counties. The only difference between the certified and standard population estimates are in reference to the municipal boundaries. The certified population estimate includes population living in any areas annexed between July 2, 2023 and July 1, 2024. For most municipalities, there is no difference in the population estimate because there were no boundary changes or no population was added to the municipality as a result of an annexation.
OSBM’s population estimates differ from those produced by the US Census Bureau due to differences in input data and estimation models. OSBM utilizes more up-to-date indicator data than those used by the US Census Bureau. See Counts, Estimates, and Projections, Oh My! for more information about the differences between our estimates, US Census Bureau estimates, census counts, and population projections.