Author: Michael Cline, North Carolina State Demographer
Agriculture remains an important part of our state’s economy. Annually, North Carolina farms sell $16.9 billion in agricultural products, including over 50% of the nation’s tobacco and sweet potatoes. Continued population growth will help sustain North Carolina agriculture well into the future because at least a portion of these products are sold to North Carolina consumers. But population growth can also threaten farm production, as development encroaches on farm and woodland acres.
Between 2010 and 2020, North Carolina’s population increased by 9.5% or almost 1.0 million people. According to the U.S. Agricultural Census, during a similar period (2012-2022), North Carolina’s farm acreage declined by -3.4% (286,620 acres).
The population gains and farm acreage losses were most significant in our major urban counties and their suburban counterparts. Population grew by 13.8% in 29 central counties of North Carolina metropolitan statistical areas while farm acreage declined by -6.3% in these same counties (or 153,104 acres). Population gains and farm acreage losses in the outlying (suburban) metropolitan counties were slightly smaller than for central metropolitan counties, while both population and farm acreages declined overall in our 55 non-metropolitan counties.
Farm Loss in Our Largest Counties
While North Carolina’s rural population remains the second largest in the nation, a larger share of North Carolinians live in cities and towns today than they did in the past. And most are living in our largest counties. Last decade, almost half of North Carolina’s population growth occurred in Wake and Mecklenburg Counties alone.
Mecklenburg remains North Carolina’s most densely populated county with relatively little farm acreage. The county’s 21.3% population increase from 2010 to 2020 was associated with a -50.1% decline in farm acreage over a similar period. The county had 7,704 total farm acres in 2022.
Wake County is now the most populated county in North Carolina – but is characteristically different than Mecklenburg in that it includes more farms and farm acreage. Its 25.4% population increase was associated with a decline of -26.0% in farm acreage, or a loss of 22,000 acres over the course of ten years. In 2022, 62,323 farm acres remained in Wake County.
Change Varies in Counties with Largest Farmland
Of course, Wake and Mecklenburg Counties aren’t representative of our most significant agricultural producing counties. There were 33 counties containing 100,000 or more farm acreage in 2022, of which 13 are included within metropolitan statistical areas – nine classified as central counties and another four classified as outlying counties. Overall, population grew by 9% (140,168 people) while farm acreage declined by -6.5% (121,530 acres) in these 13 metropolitan major farm-producing counties. The remaining 20 counties are considered non-metropolitan and in the aggregate they experienced a loss of 55,309 people (-4.4%) and a gain of 77,317 in farm acreage (2.6%).
The experiences of individual counties vary. For instance, Iredell and Chatham Counties, both classified as central metropolitan counties, experienced similar percentage gains in population (of 17.1% and 20.1% respectively) but divergent change in farm acreage (of -21.6% and +2.0% respectively).
Communities Face Decisions About Farmland Preservation
While population growth can increase demand for rural land, environmental, economic and other factors play roles in shifts from farm and woodland to other land uses. Public policy can help facilitate or slow those shifts as well. Knowing where future population growth is likely to occur will help shape policies to mitigate those shifts. Between 2020 and 2050, North Carolina is projected to add 3.8 million people – mostly in and around our major urban counties. By 2050, 76% of our population is projected to live in 28 urban and suburban counties (according to the North Carolina Rural Center definitions - depicted in the map below). It is in these counties where farm acreage will be most threatened by urban encroachment.
In their Farms Under Threat 2040, The American Farmland Trust provides a more refined analysis of this issue by looking at development patterns within counties and by providing alternative land development scenarios (from a run-away sprawl scenario to one in which higher density development is encouraged). According to their analysis, under current trends, an estimated 1.2 million acres are projected to be converted from farm to urban uses between now and 2040.
North Carolina Department of Agriculture’s Farmland Preservation Division leads the state’s efforts to ensure that fewer farms and farm acreages convert to other uses. The Farmland Preservation Division's mission is to preserve working farms and forests throughout North Carolina and foster the growth, development, and sustainability of family farms.
The North Carolina Agricultural Development and Farmland Preservation (ADFP) Trust Fund is the primary program inside the Farmland Preservation Division. The ADFP Trust Fund supports North Carolina's agricultural economy by providing grants to county governments and non-profit organizations for agricultural conservation easements, agricultural development projects, and agricultural plans.
Since 2006, the ADFP Trust Fund has preserved over 36,000 acres of farms and forests across the state through agricultural conservation easements.