Author: Michael Cline, North Carolina State Demographer
North Carolina is projected to reach 11.7 million people by 2030 according to our latest population projections. As a result of this growth, and given trends in other states shown in the US Census Bureau’s latest population estimates, our state will gain an additional congressional seat following the 2030 Census (see: Big Changes Ahead for Voting Maps After Next Census | Brennan Center for Justice ). North Carolina is on track to surpass the populations of Georgia and Ohio to become the 7th largest state in the nation by the early 2030s.
Looking further into the future, we project 15.4 million people will live in North Carolina by 2060. That’s an increase of another 4.3 million people over the next 35 years – adding a population roughly the size of the Triangle and Triad today, combined. In this blog I highlight seven major takeaways for the trends shown in these population projections.
1. More People Will Continue to Arrive from Other States and Nations
Since the 1990s, net migration – the difference between those moving to the state and those leaving – accounted for about two-thirds of our state’s growth. That figure began to rise during the 2010s as more baby boomers reached older ages and birth rates declined. So far this decade, net migration has accounted for over ninety percent of North Carolina’s population growth and beginning in the 2030s all our growth will depend on net migration.
This means eventually more North Carolinians will be born outside the state than those born within it. According to the 2023 American Community Survey, approximately 47% of North Carolina’s population was born outside of North Carolina – including nine percent who were born outside of the United States.
Components of Population Change, 1950-2020 and Projected Through 2060
2. North Carolina’s Population Will Be More Racially/Ethnically Diverse than Today
Throughout our state’s history, the North Carolina population consisted primarily of American Indian, African American or Black, and White or European groups. Since the 1990s, rapid growth in the Asian and Hispanic/Latino populations have resulted in a much more racially/ethnically diverse North Carolina population. These latter groups have a younger age profile – meaning that even without migration we expect these groups to continue to grow and our population to become more diverse.
In 2020, 39% of the state’s population was either Hispanic, Non-Hispanic American Indian, Non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander, Non-Hispanic Black, or Non-Hispanic Multiracial. By 2060, the same groups will account for 48% of North Carolina’s overall population.
3. There Will be More Older People Living Here
As the Baby Boom generation ages into retirement more North Carolinians will be 65 years old or older than today. Some of these older folks will be migrants from other areas – attracted to North Carolina’s many retirement destinations or to be nearer to quality medical care and/or family. By the end of this decade, 1 of every 5 North Carolinians will be at least 65 years old and by the early part of next decade, there will be more older adults (age 65+) than children (ages 0 through 17) in North Carolina.
Our projections show that by 2030, 2.4 million North Carolinians will be in this older age groups, including over 3,000 centenarians. These numbers will increase to 3.4 million and 23,000, respectively, by 2060.
4. Growth in the Early Childhood Population Will Surpass the Growth of the Primary/Secondary and College Age Populations
The annual number of births declined slightly over the last decade. This resulted in a decline in the pre-school age population (ages 0 through 4) by about 34,000 to 598,000 by 2020. During this decade, a larger cohort of women in prime child-bearing years will mean more births during the 2020s than what occurred last decade. The number of these young children has already increased by over 8,000 and we expect another 23,000 to be added in the next five years so that by 2030, there will be 607,000 pre-school age children (an increase of 3.8%). If these trends continue, we expect there to be 746,000 pre-school age children by 2060 – 140,000 (+23%) more than today.
5. The Primary/Secondary School Age Population Will Remain About the Same Size in 2030 as it is Today
During the early part of this decade, the primary and secondary school age children population increased by 17,000 children. It will increase much more slowly over the last part of the decade – adding an estimated 5,000 children between 2025 and 2030. By 2030, there will be 1,742,000 children in this age group – compared to 1,725,000 that were present in 2020.
More robust growth among this age group will return in the long-term. By 2060 there will be an estimated 2.1 million primary/secondary school age children – an increase of 323,000 children between 2025 and 2060.
6. The Rate of Growth in the College Age Population Will Slow, Population Declines Expected in the 2030s
In 2020, there were an estimated 982,000 North Carolinians ages 18 through 24. This age group increased by 107,000 people during the first part of this decade (10.9%) and will continue to grow but at a slower rate during the last half of the decade – adding a projected 62,000 between 2025 and 2030 (5.7%). By 2030, there are projected to be 1.3 million people in this age group. This age group will grow more slowly over the next decade before steadily increasing to 1.3 million people by 2060, an increase of 222,000 or 19.3% from 2025.
7. North Carolina Will Become a More Urban State
In 2020, 65% of all North Carolinians (or 6.8 million people) lived within 22 urban or regional center/suburban counties, with the remaining 35% (or 3,649,000 people) living in 78 rural counties.
Continued rapid growth in the Piedmont and in and around major urban areas will lead to more rural counties increasing in population size and density. Two such counties, Lee and Harnett Counties are projected to have enough population to be re-classified as regional center/suburban counties by 2030.
Even without these two counties, the population living in rural counties as defined by the North Carolina Rural Center, will be slightly larger in 2030 than what was present in 2020 – at 3,690,000 people.
Unfortunately, some rural counties have so far had limited growth or population decline since 2020 and these patterns will likely continue. This is especially true for the smallest of rural counties and those located away from major urban centers and without major natural amenities, which attract retirees and others interested in an outdoor lifestyle.
The remainder of the state’s population in 2030—8,054,000 people—is projected to live within the 24 urban or regional center/suburban counties. This means 69% of the state’s projected 2030 population will live in an urban or regional center/suburban county.
By 2060, that proportion is expected to rise to more than 77%, with 11,893,000 million people living in urban or regional center/suburban counties (28 counties). Less than a quarter of North Carolina’s projected population will live in the remaining 72 rural counties (3,477,000 people).
About These Population Projections
The State Demographer in the North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management produces population projections annually. These population projections provide insights into population changes occurring within the state so that state agencies, local governments, and others can plan to meet the future needs of North Carolinians. The population projections referenced in this summary are the Vintage 2024 Population Projections and they incorporated trends shown in the latest population estimates (the Vintage 2023 Population Estimates). You can access summary tables or the several datasets that provide population projections by sex, age, race and Hispanic origin for the state, regions, and counties.