Author: Michael Cline, North Carolina State Demographer
The US Census Bureau’s latest population estimates show that North Carolina counties continue to fair better than counties in other states and the South. Eighty-seven of our 100 counties experienced at least some level of population growth between July 1, 2023 and July 1, 2024; and, on average, North Carolina counties grew by 0.9%. These results can be compared to counties by regions and for all counties in the United States shown in the following table.
Population Change for Counties in the United States, by U.S. Region, and in North Carolina
| Region | Number of Counties | 2020-24 Growing Counties (%) | 2020-24 Average Percent Change | 2023-24 Growing Counties (%) | 2023-24 Average Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | 218 | 56.0 | 0.4 | 65.6 | 0.3 |
| Midwest | 1,055 | 49.0 | 0.1 | 59.1 | 0.1 |
| West | 449 | 65.5 | 2.5 | 67.2 | 0.4 |
| South | 1,422 | 62.4 | 2.0 | 70.0 | 0.6 |
| North Carolina | 100 | 84.0 | 3.7 | 87.0 | 0.9 |
| All U.S. Counties | 3,144 | 57.9 | 1.3 | 65.6 | 0.4 |
Most growth continues in and around our major urban counties, but rural counties are also benefitting from post-COVID growth.
Our fastest growing counties are suburban counties outside of Charlotte, Raleigh, and Wilmington. They include:
Top 5 Fastest Growing Counties, 2023-24
- Brunswick (4.5%)
- Franklin (3.5%)
- Johnston (3.1%)
- Iredell (3.0%)
- Harnett (3.0%)
Six counties accounted for over half (52%) of all population growth between 2023-24:
- Thirty-six percent of all growth was in Mecklenburg (+30,057) and Wake (+29,050) counties alone (out of total state growth of 164,835)
- Another 16% of all growth was in:
- Johnston (+7,436)
- Brunswick (+7,257)
- Johnston (+7,053)
- Durham (+6,390)
- Iredell (+6,050)
Most counties experienced natural decrease
Owing to an aging population, there were more deaths than births in 77 counties. This is referred to as natural decrease. Counties experiencing natural decrease can grow only if the number of people moving into the county exceeds natural decrease and the number of people moving away.
Most counties in North Carolina grew despite having natural decrease because they continued to gain population from other counties, states, and from abroad. Only 11 of the 77 natural decrease counties saw population loss.
All but six counties had more people moving in than those who moved out
Largest net gains through net migration (both domestic and international migrants):
- Wake (+22,574)
- Mecklenburg (+22,081)
- Brunswick (+8,065)
- Johnston (+6,406)
- Iredel (+5,875)
Largest net gains through only domestic migration were in the following counties:
- Wake (+9,870)
- Brunswick (+8,011)
- Johnston (+5,283)
- Iredell (+5,023)
- Union (+3,669)
Twenty-one counties experience both natural increase and positive net migration including: Cabarrus, Craven, Duplin, Durham, Forsyth, Franklin, Gaston, Guilford, Harnett, Hoke, Iredell, Johnston, Lee, Mecklenburg, Orange, Pitt, Robeson, Sampson, Union, Wake, and Wayne Counties.
Census Bureau estimates are different than the North Carolina certified population estimates
The US Census Bureau’s annual population estimates are the second of four major series of population estimates, which began with the state population estimates that were published in December. The incorporated place (municipal) population estimates will be published in May and the detailed population characteristics (age, race/ethnicity, sex) will be published in June. These population estimates will be different than the certified population estimates that will be published by the State Demographer in September, although they should show similarities in general trends.
The State Demographer uses different sets of inputs and a different methodology to produce the state’s estimates. In addition, because of their production schedule, some of the input data used for the Census Bureau is not complete, whereas the State Demographer’s input data is complete by the time the population estimates are finalized. Still, these population estimates provide a means for the state and local governments to compare their populations and population change to other counties outside of North Carolina.
The North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management (OSBM) is a partner with the US Census Bureau through the Federal-State Cooperative for Population Estimates (FSCPE).