Author: Michael Cline, North Carolina State Demographer
There are now over 11 million people living in North Carolina according to the latest population estimates published by the U.S. Census Bureau. North Carolina’s population grew by 165,000 people from July 1, 2023 to July 1, 2024 – the fourth largest population gain in the nation – after Texas (at 563,000), Florida (467,000) and California (233,000).
Since the Census in 2020, North Carolina has added 605,000 people. If this pace of growth continues, the state will add more people than was added in the previous decade (904,000). So far, North Carolina has added an average of 142,000 people per year – more than the 90,000 average annual change during the 2010s.
At 11,046,000 people, North Carolina remains the ninth largest state in the nation, but continues to gain ground on Georgia and Ohio, the eighth and seventh most populated states, respectively. Georgia (11,064,000 people) added 116,000 people during the same period (a 1.1% gain), while Ohio (11,824,000 people) added just 59,000 people (a 0.5% gain).
At 1.5%, North Carolina’s rate of growth was the eighth fastest growth among all states and the District of Columbia. This rate of growth was slightly less than the revised 1.6% rate of growth the US Census Bureau estimated for July 1, 2022 to July 1, 2023.
More People Moving to North Carolina
The number of people moving to North Carolina far exceeds those leaving to other states and abroad. Since April 1, 2020, there was an estimated net gain of 573,000 people due to net migration (state-to-state or domestic migration and international migration). This number accounted for 95% of total population growth between April 1, 2020 and July 1, 2024.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, international migration stalled such that net international migration accounted for less than 10% of total net migration in North Carolina. Since then, international net migration has steadily increased. During the previous year, net international migration accounted for almost half (46%) of all net migration to North Carolina. During this period, there was a net gain of 70,000 people from abroad.
There were 82,000 more people who moved into North Carolina than those who moved out to other states during the previous year. Since 2020, net domestic migration steadily declined from a high of 103,000 from July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021, to 82,000 between July 1, 2023 to July 1, 2024. Still, only Texas (which added 85,000 people through domestic migration) added more people through state-to-state migration than North Carolina.
Natural Increase Remains Steady
There have been around 121,000 births annually since 2022, while the number of deaths has remained steady at around 109,000 since 2023. Thus, natural increase (more births than deaths) has added about 12,000 people to the state’s population during the previous two periods and accounted for 8% of all population growth from July 1, 2023 to July 1, 2024.
Since April 1, 2020, there was a net gain of only 32,000 people due to natural increase – accounting for just 5% of all population growth. Given the aging of our population, North Carolina will continue to rely heavily on migration for future population growth.
A Note About International Migration
The US Census Bureau works to improve each vintage of population estimates by incorporating revised input data and periodic methodological updates. Thus, previous estimates are revised back to the previous decennial census and the latest vintage supersedes those published in previous years.
This year, the US Census Bureau incorporated new data and methodologies to improve its estimate of net international migration within the context of the latest surge in immigration. This has resulted in significant upward revisions in the population estimates published for North Carolina. For instance, estimates of net international migration for July 1, 2022 to July 1, 2023, changed from 29,000 in the Vintage 2023 estimates to 58,000 in the Vintage 2024 population estimates. Along with some minor revisions to other components of population change, the previous estimates for July 1, 2022 to July 1, 2023 were thus revised upward from a total population change of 140,000 (a 1.3% gain) to 170,000 (a 1.6% gain) in the estimate published this year.
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The US Census Bureau publishes population estimates on an annual basis – starting with the population estimates for states as reported here. These will be followed up by the population estimates for counties in March and the estimates for incorporated places (municipalities) in May.
The State Demographer’s office also publishes population estimates for counties and municipalities. Our next set of population projections will be published soon and will include forecasts of the population through 2060. See Counts, Estimates, and Projections, Oh My! to find out more about the differences in these sources. The State Demographer is part of the Federal-State Cooperative for Population Estimates and the Federal-State Cooperative for Population Projections.