Author: Michael Cline, North Carolina State Demographer
North Carolina continues its robust population growth as shown in our latest population estimates for July 1, 2023. North Carolina’s 400,000 person population gain since April 1, 2020 was bested by only Texas and Florida, and the gains were more dispersed throughout the state than in the previous decade.
About a quarter (28%) of the state’s population growth occurred in our two largest counties – Wake (gaining 66,000 people since 2020) and Mecklenburg (gaining 47,000 people since 2020). This is a much smaller proportion than last decade, when 47% of North Carolina’s gains occurred in these two counties alone.
Johnston (+25,000), Brunswick (+24,000), and Union (19,000) counties accounted for another 17% of the state’s population gains, with another 55% percent of the growth occurring in 69 additional counties.
At the end of the previous decade, Wake County became the largest county in North Carolina. Today, there are 1,194,000 people living in Wake County and 1,162,000 people living in the second largest county - Mecklenburg County.
Population growth in Cabarrus (+17,000) and Johnston (+25,000) counties surpassed the growth in Gaston County (+13,000) so that these counties are now ranked as the 9th, 10th, and 11th most populous counties in North Carolina as of July 1, 2023, respectively (from 10th, 12th, and 9th as of April 1, 2020).
Seventy-four counties have experienced some level of population growth with the fastest growing populations concentrated in and around our largest cities or having natural amenities like beaches, mountains, and lakes.
Between July 1, 2022 and July 1, 2023 and between April 1, 2020 and July 1, 2023, the fastest growing counties were Brunswick (5% and 17%, respectively) and Pender (4% and 12%) counties on the coast near Wilmington; and suburban Franklin (4% and 13%) and Johnston (3% and 12%) counties near Wake County.
Overall, there were 21 counties with gains of 5% or more since April 1, 2020. In all, 83 counties had some level of growth between July 1, 2022 and July 1, 2023, indicating continued recovery since the beginning of the pandemic.
About the Population Estimates
In this post, except where noted, the population estimates summarized here were derived from the official county and standard municipal population estimates published on September 16, 2024. The standard estimates include revisions to previous annual population estimates and thus should be used for most planning purposes.
OSBM’s population estimates differ from those produced by the US Census Bureau due to differences in input data and estimation models. OSBM utilizes more up-to-date indicator data than those used by the US Census Bureau. See Counts, Estimates, and Projections, Oh My! for more information about the differences between our estimates, US Census Bureau estimates, census counts, and population projections.